Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Only one-third of the top economists surveyed give Jim Chalmers’ third budget an A or a B, down from two-thirds in 2023. Many say it left big issues unaddressed.
Investors, homebuyers and central bankers all have reason to be irritated by the latest data, and inflation isn’t licked just yet. But the numbers also show reason for optimism.
Peter Whiteford, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Unemployment and related payments for working-age people were given a welcome boost in last year’s budget. But they remain well below pensions, and far from adequate.
The real question in the minds of many economists is what the trend in inflation will be going forward, and when interest rates will begin to fall and bring relief to Canadians.
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Per person, we’re spending less this year – even on this year’s much hyped Black Friday sales. If that continues over summer and inflation stays low, a rate hike in February 2024 looks unlikely.
Peter Martin, Crawford School of Public Policy, Australian National University
Petrol prices have pushed inflation up. At its next meeting, the Reserve Bank board is going to have to decide if that warrants an increase in interest rates.
Many Canadians are puzzled by food prices remaining high despite the Bank of Canada’s efforts to curb inflation. If interest rate policies aren’t bringing food prices down, then what will?
Inflation has slipped faster than the Reserve Bank thought it would, and the underlying rate is down to 5.4%. The bank is likely to tread cautiously from here on.