We crave certainty in our weather forecasts. But that’s only possible for big weather events such as cyclones and major storms. Everything else is probability.
It’s not just ocean temperatures that determine whether we have El Niño or La Niña. Air circulation also plays a role, and it’s changing in unexpected ways.
The latest Bureau of Meteorology forecast offers relief from record rain and floods brought about by La Niña. A longer-term outlook for El Niño is still up in the air – but its arrival would be disastrous.
Processes like La Niña set the scene for the sort of extreme weather that has hit eastern Australia. But what decides which towns and suburbs are hit hardest, and which ones are spared?
The southern parts of Australia are expected to become increasingly dry due to climate change. Yet, we now find ourselves subject to another La Niña event. What’s going on?
While land tornadoes are associated with huge supercell thunderstorms, waterspouts can form during smaller storms or even just showers or the presence of the right kind of clouds.
Yes, some of this is normal seasonal transition. But at least a portion of it is due to a particularly vigorous cold front that swept across southeast Australia over the weekend.
Concentrations of carbon dioxide are now 147% above pre-industrial levels, according to a definitive report by the World Meteorological Organisation released today.
David Jones, Australian Bureau of Meteorology; Karl Braganza, Australian Bureau of Meteorology, and Skie Tobin, Australian Bureau of Meteorology
The Bureau of Meterology says persistent drought and record temperatures were a major driver of Australia’s fire activity, and the context for 2019 lies in the past three years of drought.
The peak time for heatwaves in southern Australia has not yet arrived. Many parts of Australia can expect heavy rains and flooding. And northern Australia’s cyclone season is just gearing up.