Does a poll lead increase your poll lead? The science of bandwagon effects explained.
British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak talks to journalists on his plane as he travels from Northern Ireland to Birmingham in May 2024 during a day of campaigning for the British election on July 4.
(HENRY NICHOLLS/Pool photo via AP)
The “PM and the Pendulum” model has been successfully forecasting British elections since 2005. This year’s predictions suggest UK Conservatives are in for a major drubbing on July 4.
With the UK heading for an election on July 4, it can feel like the result is pre-ordained. Labour has maintained a decisive poll lead for over a year and nothing Rishi Sunak does appears to shift the…
Numbers of Muslim and Jewish voters in the US, are small, compared to the rest of the population, so their voting patterns are unlikely to change the 2024 election result.
A survey released by the Australian National University has reinforced that October’s referendum might have passed if it had been confined to constitutional recognition of Indigenous Australians.
Despite the best of intentions, the prime minister’s determination to take Australians to a referendum on the Voice to Parliament has caused tremendous damage.
Our research has found the ‘yes’ side has been generating the lion’s share of Voice content in the media and social media over the past six weeks, but is still trailing in the polls.
Polls showed Joe Biden, right, holding double-digit leads over Donald Trump, left, in the run-up to the 2020 election, but he won election by only 4.5 percentage points.
AP Photo/Patrick Semansky, File
The unusual candidacy of former President Donald Trump has made election polling especially appealing, more than a year from the election. But consumers beware: Those polls may be wrong.
Yes23 is blanketing the nation in hundreds of ads, while Fair Australia is sticking with a singular message and targeting specific states that will ensure a ‘no’ victory.
The ‘no’ side is successfully engaging young people on TikTok by combining volume (posting multiple TikToks a day) with authenticity, use of personal narratives and humour.
Maintaining impartiality does not require the media to publish nonsense, and certainly does not require them to publish nonsense without drawing attention to the facts or contrary evidence.
Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University