The polls in late February suggest a 4-5% swing in the overall, two-party vote to Labor. However, Labor needs to pick up ten seats in total to win its own majority.
Comparisons of national polls over an eight-month period show support falling only among Coalition voters. This may not be fatal to the referendum’s chances, but it is serious.
More than 110 million votes were cast in the U.S. midterm elections of November 2022.
Hill Street Studios/Digital Vision via Getty Iag
When the rot sets in, past governments have found it hard to win back the public.
A prominent GOP poll said Democratic U.S. Sen. Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire would lose her re-election bid to a Republican. Hassan won by 9 percentage points.
AP Photo/Charles Krupa
Polling for the 2022 midterms was more accurate than the dramatically wrong predictions of 2016 and 2020, leading one pollster to boast, ‘The death of polling has been greatly exaggerated.’
A young voter fills out her ballot at a polling site in Brooklyn, N.Y., on Nov. 8, 2022. Public polling underestimated the strength of the youth vote in the recent U.S. midterms.
(AP Photo/John Minchillo)
The U.S. midterms revealed a generational shift away from youth voter apathy. The apathetic, in fact, seem to be those trying to accurately measure public opinion using outdated methods.
Polling only provides a snapshot of the current moment but modelling across decades can help us predict the next election result.
In Maine’s 2020 Senate race, not one poll showed the GOP incumbent, Susan Collins, in the lead. But she trounced her Democratic challenger by 9 points.
AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty
Will some polls misfire in prominent races in the 2022 midterms? Probably. Will such errors be eye-catching? In some cases, perhaps. Will the news media continue to tout polls? Undoubtedly.
The cabinet having an absolute hoot at their annual conference in Birmingham.
Alamy/PA
Labor needs substantially more than 50% of the two-party preferred vote – 51.8% according to the pendulum – to win the majority of seats, 76. This equates to a swing of 3.3 percentage points.
While the latest polls show the Coalition struggling to gain ground on Labor in two-party preferred terms, Scott Morrison maintains his lead as preferred prime minister.
At the 2019 election, the polls got it seriously wrong. State polls and election results suggest this may have been corrected, but it’s by no means certain.
Would Australians vote for an Indigenous Voice in the Constitution, or just approve the parliament simply legislating a Voice?
Australians may support one, both, or neither.
Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University