Joseph Cabosky, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Political campaigns and journalists often turn to social media to see how voters feel about an election. But the numbers they see there may not accurately reflect the electorate’s views.
The most important reason for the Coalition’s victory was that Morrison was both liked and trusted by lower-educated voters, while Labor leader Bill Shorten was not.
Mick Tsikas/AAP
According to election results, areas with low levels of tertiary education swung strongly to the Coalition in NSW and Queensland, helping propel Scott Morrison to victory.
Donald Trump receives historically low favorability ratings.
REUTERS/Alkis Konstantinidis
Approval ratings are usually a good way to predict the winner of the next presidential election. But Trump’s numbers fall far outside any historical trends.
Better opinions polls are more expensive because pollsters need to spend more effort getting a representative and honest sample of voters.
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You could compare election opinion polls to penalty shoot-outs at a World Cup final: there’s huge pressure to get it right and we remember the big misses most of all.
Americans’ votes in 2020 will likely be a statement on what they think of Trump – rather than a measured choice between him and the Democratic candidate.
Naval Station Norfolk in Virginia, the Navy’s largest base, is endangered by sea level rise.
Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Ernest R. Scott
Military veterans have concerns about climate change at about the same level as nonveterans, a recent study suggests. What might this mean for acceptance of climate science?
Would Britain vote to leave a second time?
PA/Yui Mok
Back in 2016, the Brexit vote and US presidential election seemed like a nationalist one-two punch that could knock out the European Union. Instead, EU support actually rose, new research shows.
Policymaking is no longer based solely on what a party stands for. Now, it also matters how a decision is going to play in the opinion polls – and that’s a problem for our political system.
A Michigan township collects votes in 2016.
Barbara Kalbfleisch/shutterstock
Professor of Economics and Finance. Director of the Betting Research Unit and the Political Forecasting Unit at Nottingham Business School, Nottingham Trent University